We have entered the Asian Century. A global political and economic shift of historic proportions is under way – and it opens the door to a far-reaching rethink of core leadership ideas

Much has been written about the Asian Century. For many years now, analysts and commentators have peered into the future and seen Asian countries playing an increasingly dominant role in both the political and economic spheres. It is set to be one of the defining historical shifts of the 21st century – yet while it was widely foreseen, few have anticipated quite how quickly this shift would take place.

The first quarter of the century is not quite complete, yet we are already seeing a substantial reshuffling of the economic world order. Coupled with emergent and more potent geopolitical conflicts, it creates a compelling mix of impacts for global leaders in politics and business. The growing strength of Asia heralds a more multipolar world, where leaders will have to manage complex balances of power and where previous truisms, such as the onward march of liberal globalization, may no longer hold true. The transition is not likely to be simple: with global multipolarity has come more frequent challenges to sovereignty and power imbalances, creating risk and the return of the threat of war to the Middle and Far East.

Global executives from Western countries, now more than ever, need to understand the growing and fast-evolving Asian markets. Asia is emerging as an integrated and cooperative region, rivaling the states and institutions of the West – and for the first time in modernity, the West is considering whether there is something to learn from the communitarian optimization so prominent in Asian decision-making.

The Asian Century is upon us. It will change – possibly even transform – what’s next in the practice of global leadership.

The world tilts East

For a sense of how far and how fast Asia’s influence has grown, consider a range of data. The Asian continent, from the Middle to the Far East, is now the world’s largest economy measured in GDP, on the back of superlative economic growth in China, India and South Korea in particular – but indeed across Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The IMF calculates Asia-Pacific and the Middle East’s GDP at $42 trillion, while Europe clocks in at $26 trillion. India and Southeast Asia are expected to be the world’s 3rd and 4th largest economies by 2030.

Asia’s share of global trade and patents are rising too, and of the world’s 500 biggest companies by revenue, 210 are Asian. Asian corporations contributed approximately $19 trillion to the global economy in 2020, according to McKinsey, propelled by some of the most iconic brands in global business – think of Toyota, Samsung, Alibaba and Saudi Aramco. In June 2024, Fortune launched its newest and latest ranking initiative, the Fortune Southeast Asia 500. This is genuinely remarkable, given that this establishment has only occasionally adjusted its methodology in the past 70 years to account for major economic shifts.

But more than this, Asia appears to be progressing and thriving where Western countries are faltering. Many Asian countries have made tremendous strides in creating trust in businesses, governments and the media, as indicated by consistent and continued rises on the World Bank governance indicators for government effectiveness, Economist Intelligence Unit inclusiveness indicators, and the Edelman Trust Barometer study.

Over the last decade, the Trust Barometer has highlighted that public trust has declined significantly in companies headquartered in traditional Western economic and industrial powerhouses, like the United States (where trust was down 9 points to 53% in the latest report) and Germany (down 9 points to 62%), to take just two examples. In stark contrast, countries in the Asian continent have witnessed the reverse. Incredibly, businesses, governments, NGOs and the media in Southeast Asian countries – including the likes of Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam – have increased public trust (up 14 points to 54%), even in the face of 21st-century adversities and global challenges such as cybercrime, climate change, financial fraud, inflation, supply chain risks and digital disruption.

The Asian Century and the future of leadership

The tilt toward Asia has multiple implications for global leadership. In our conversations with leaders operating across the region and globally, we see four particularly important changes.

First, it creates a need in many traditionally ‘Western’ multinationals for leaders who understand Asian markets. One example of this is Western pharmaceutical companies sending their senior clinical and commercial staff on market immersion learning programs, helping them to understand market demands, trends, ecosystem partnerships and regulatory environments in Asian countries. The focus of future strategic business is targeted towards the world’s largest growth markets and leadership development follows suit. Market immersions now take place in Singapore, Bangalore and Riyadh, rather than only in Silicon Valley.

Second, we are at an inflection point in the dominance of traditional industrial leadership styles. Technological disruption and geopolitical shifts are creating more cultural fault lines. In Asia, we are seeing a near-universal intentional reduction in imported talent, and a newfound confidence in and reliance on home-grown leadership talent. For example, many of our Middle and Far East clients are very deliberate, in their corporate university programs, about contributing to national capability goals and developing the next generation of national leadership talent. Similarly, Asian firms’ talent processes are increasingly set up to prioritize searches in their local markets when recruiting key executive leaders. As one captain-of-industry client shared recently, “We are in an ‘Asia-first’ moment where we are looking less and less at large globalized leadership development in a Western model, and more at regional leadership for the increasingly regionalized market we serve.”

Third, while culturally different leadership styles have always been appreciated, there is a new sense that the communitarian optimization style typical in Asia may have wide applicability in a more multipolar world. Where can Asia lead us with a leadership style that is more attuned to the ecosystemic, multi-nodal world we now inhabit? Traditional models of leadership that rely heavily on unilateral interests and dominance are being challenged, and there is more openness to stakeholder-engaged styles that rely on finding careful equilibrium and optimizing respective interests. It may be a leadership style to which Asian leaders and cultures are uniquely attuned. An example is seen in the comments of the new Prime Minister of Singapore, Lawrence Wong, in his interview with The Economist in May 2024, where he argued that Singapore can only optimize its national interest by managing a careful balance of optimal partner interests across its
regional ecosystem.

Finally, we believe that when it comes to leading for environment, social and governance benefits (ESG), Asia has a unique contribution to make. Some of the world’s most ambitious sustainable giga-projects, next-generation infrastructure innovation, and inclusive leadership initiatives are being led by Middle Eastern and East or Southeast Asian countries. Singapore is one of the world’s most successful intentionally designed circular economies. Neom is Saudi Arabia’s novel giga-project to create a wholly sustainable city built on new and futuristic notions of embedded net zero design. A more holistic focus on social impact in many Asian firms lends itself to a natural focus on ESG. It is also true that Asia accounts for the majority of global carbon emissions: transition in Asian factories, materials, energy choices and supply chains will determine the future of climate change. There is evidence that ESG standards are gaining hold, if not harmonizing globally; the role that Asia plays in innovating towards a carbon neutral future will be absolutely essential to the world’s prospects of halting climate change.

Thriving in the Asian Century

So, how can you prepare your organization and leaders for the new world order we are entering? There are four key strategies to consider.

1. Include the Asian Century in leadership development

All global leaders must understand how drastically the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has shifted, and what it means for them and their organizations. This needs to be as much philosophical as it is practical. We must move away from the nineties and noughties business school curriculum that reflected a time when globalization reigned supreme and trade barriers were being lifted around the world. Executives now need to be prepared for much more regionalized markets where regulation and trade barriers are re-emerging, but local and regional market opportunities are greater. More immersive experiences in Asian markets are essential for executives in nearly all global industries and companies; leadership and organizational development efforts should be targeted accordingly.

2. Seize the opportunity created by government investments in home-grown talent

Due to the legacy of the developmental state in many parts of Asia, this trend – which is seen from the Middle East to Southeast Asia – represents a welcome opportunity for organizations to work with governments to develop the next generation of country-level executive leaders in business and politics. The foresight of Asian governments is unique in planning for the ‘100-year career.’ Their investments in lifelong learning represent a significant opportunity to leverage local talent in global planning. Moreover, new regulations and collaborations are likely to require companies to go beyond the imported-talent approach of the past. This is an opportunity to increase diversity and leverage a ‘glocal’ approach for all organizations seeking access and influence in Asia.

3. Adapt to a changing world

We are entering a multi-polar, ecosystem-driven, digital-first world – which means that leadership ideas that emphasize optimizing the interests of multiple stakeholders may well gain prominence. The stability that this style has brought to Asia could benefit the world in the coming century. More emphasis will need to be placed on building classic negotiation skills in pursuit of a balanced equilibrium, rather than unilateral or binary approaches. And as more and more large legacy organizations seek ecosystemic partnerships to foster innovation, leading in a complex network of relationships will become the norm. Arguably, Asian conglomerates and consensual leadership styles have much to teach the world about succeeding in this type of structural environment.

4. Culturally contextualize leadership for ESG

ESG reporting norms are evolving regionally – and some of the world’s most promising ESG innovations are Asia-led. But much remains to be done to embed ESG in a more Asia-centric way. ESG approaches on the Asian continent will need to appreciate cultural norms, and leaders will know how to leverage
ESG progress, such as by adopting a holistic orientation. Additionally, Asia represents an incredibly wide range of countries and cultures, and there is much to be gained from a regionally integrated approach, which Asia has achieved on many other important initiatives.

Into the Asian Century

The Asian Century represents a unique opportunity for those organizations and leaders who are prepared to understand, learn and leverage from the continent that has brought us many advances in science, trade, communication and growth since antiquity. We face a less certain, more complex balance of power, which will determine the fate of governments and businesses for the next 50 years and more – yet we should seek to learn from an environment in which Asia has proven we can not only survive, but thrive. The communitarian values of cooperation, collaboration and complex equilibrium could redefine leaders’ toolkits for the 21st century.

Dr. Beth Ahlering is the regional managing director, and Dennis Foo is the managing director for Duke Corporate Education, Asia and the Middle East.