Humanity’s long track record of adapting to change suggests we would be wise to double down on developing evergreen leadership capabilities

Let’s address the elephant in the room. In leadership circles, referring to our current era as “unprecedented times” has become quite possibly the most precedented thing of all. It has become a staple of business meetings around the world. Yet it is entirely misconceived.

Throughout human history, we have perceived upheaval as novel – yet we have adapted, using the same ancient skillsets that allowed Homo sapiens to rise from its humble beginnings. Our ancestors endured “unprecedented” turmoil after turmoil by repeatedly deploying the same ancestral cognitive toolkit.

Consider the sheer scale of the changes that lie in our past. Prehistoric climate shifts forced unplanned migrations. Empires rose, then collapsed. The Black Death pandemic wiped out up to 200 million people across Eurasia and North Africa in the 14th century; contemporary accounts described the devastation in apocalyptic terms, yet it was ultimately contained through the timeless practices of quarantine, sanitation, and building herd immunity. Humanity’s resilience persisted despite existential dread. We have endured a litany of industrial, political and social revolutions – from the Renaissance to the Age of Enlightenment to the digital era – each heralded as shattering the fabric of civilization.

In each phase, human adaptability has carried civilization through. It is why – as we battle with our own disorienting waves of change today and strive to lead our organizations through the uncertainty – we are well advised to refocus on evergreen leadership capabilities. A leadership approach built on the constants of reason, empathy and collective effort will help us shape positive transformations.

The indispensable art of critical analysis

Never has impartial reasoning been more vital than in our present data-saturated yet insight-starved landscape. As AI large language models churn out plausible-sounding content at unprecedented scales, the distinctly human ability to cut through misinformation and analyze root causes with rigor becomes utterly essential.

This discernment has been key throughout history when humanity has faced competing narratives and vested interests distorting the truth. From Galileo challenging medieval geocentrism, to medical pioneers overthrowing ancient dogmas, it is those with steely objectivity and willingness to question assumptions who propel breakthroughs.

For instance, when Volvo sensed public disquiet over vehicular emissions, it leveraged sophisticated analytics to develop electrification strategies, solidifying its market leadership in sustainable transport. This contrasts sharply with Unilever. Ironically, the firm, which actively championed sustainability under former chief executive Paul Polman, fell victim to a blunder after blindly extrapolating from data-mined consumer correlations, churning out eco-hostile inventory just as sustainability went mainstream. Sharper critical thinking could have foreseen this strategic calamity well beforehand.

We also saw in the 2008 financial crisis how investment banks deployed flawed risk models, shaped by incentives for short-term gains over diligent stewardship. More robust critical analysis may have illuminated the shaky foundations of credit derivatives and housing bubbles before catalyzing systemic collapse.

In the modern era, advanced critical faculties are particularly crucial as technological capabilities race ahead of governance and human wisdom. Rigorous ethical thinking, combined with impartial logic, will be vital to steering innovations such as artificial general intelligence (AGI), gene editing and geo-engineering onto beneficial trajectories, rather than allowing dystopian derailments to unfold. Without keen human judgment, technological prowess alone becomes a runaway train.

The multiplying powers of influence

With every organizational decision now shaped by climate risks, those leaders who can build consensus and inspire progress on sustainable pathways will catalyze enduring impact and value creation. Yet rallying diverse stakeholders with competing motivations demands an exceptional human capacity for persuasion and vision-casting that algorithms cannot match.

Consider Iberdrola. For years, the Spanish energy giant’s bold pivot to renewable generation stalled amid boardroom disunity and public cynicism over its feasibility. But when Ignacio Galán arrived as chief executive, his influential alchemies gradually turned the tanker. With deft technical mastery and ethical clarity on sustainability’s imperatives, Galán crafted an inspiring narrative around innovation, new jobs, energy security and climate responsibility. By activating these intrinsic drivers within both internal and external stakeholders, he steadily built consensus where competitors floundered. Within a few years, Iberdrola went from cautionary tale to global poster-child for profitable reinvention.

This talent has allowed iconic leaders throughout history to unite people behind lofty visions. From the Founding Fathers of the United States, rallying colonists to the struggle for independence, to social reformers like Martin Luther King Jr catalyzing the civil rights movement, the power to reshape mindsets through stirring rhetoric and moral courage has created tipping points. Even scientific revolutionaries like Copernicus and Darwin succeeded by championing new paradigms through patient persuasion over decades.

As technological capabilities exponentially increase, the ability to captivate human hearts and minds and shape positive shared agendas grows ever more precious. While narrow artificial intelligence can leverage vast data to optimize tactics, uniquely human storytelling and purposeful inspiration will remain irreplaceable for harmonizing civilizational strategies at a deeper level.

Without these connective skills, emerging innovations from gene editing to quantum computing risk being derailed by public backlash, interest group obstructionism or lack of social license. Profound influencing talents, integrating technical competence with emotional intelligence and the capacity to mobilize collective action, could ultimately mean the difference between thriving and faltering.

The enlightening gift of empathy

As multinational business operate amid rising ideological and cultural crosscurrents, those leaders able to intuitively grasp diverse mindsets and societal contexts will hold an increasingly formidable edge. Appreciating subtle differences in norms and moral framings allows companies to foster trust and partnerships where crude, blanket doctrines breed alienation.

This is a particular challenge for Western corporates reared on insular, transactional thinking. But organizations that cultivate empathetic leaders skilled at bridging divides will be unfettered by such myopia. Take DP World, the Emirati logistics megalith. When chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem faced stalling infrastructure projects across South Asia, he leaned into his unique upbringing across Britain, India and the Gulf to reframe stakeholder relations. Engaging local communities and powerbrokers as partners rather than obstacles, he cut through tensions from a shared ethos of mutual understanding. Key developments rapidly advanced once DP World aligned priorities with regional contexts.

Even in advanced economies, empathetic attunement allows leaders to harmonize with evolving social values. It is easy for businesses to find themselves out of sync – as we saw in recent years as customers began prioritizing sustainability and corporate responsibility. Many multinationals found that products and policies shaped by insular mindsets were becoming misaligned with the public conscience.

In contrast, Samsung under chairman Lee Jae-yong has largely avoided such stumbles. Lee combined pragmatic commercial instincts with the ability to sync with larger social currents, positioning Samsung as both an innovator and a responsible global citizen. Through diplomatic bridge-building with leaders like America’s President Biden and China’s President Xi, Lee has also deftly navigated geopolitical schisms that have paralyzed rivals.

History has repeatedly illustrated the power of profound empathy as a strategic asset. Lincoln’s capacity to grasp perspectives across the Civil War’s divided ideological camps allowed him to heal national fractures. Franklin Roosevelt’s emotional intelligence attuned him to the plight of common Americans during the Great Depression, catalyzing the political will for his transformative New Deal policies. And in realms scarred by human conflict, enlightened empathy has been crucial for transcending cycles of violence and vengeance. From the Truth and Reconciliation efforts ending Apartheid in South Africa, to peacebuilding in Northern Ireland, those able to intuit outgroups’ grievances created the foundations for breakthroughs. In an age of multiplying fault lines and zero-sum narratives, such talents are indispensable.

Learning from mistakes and triumphs

Those bereft of critical thinking, inspirational influence, and empathetic collaboration are continuously at risk of strategic incoherence
and value destruction. Ethical lapses, toxic cultures, and catastrophic missed opportunities become inevitable.

Lest we forget, even the most brilliant visionaries are prone to self-destruction without the moral anchoring that comes from social intelligence. At the turn of this century, it was Jeffrey Skilling at Enron (leading to a 24-year jail sentence). Rajat Gupta, having led arguably the most prestigious consulting firm and investment bank (McKinsey and Goldman Sachs), spent two years in prison for insider trading.

More recently we have seen the spectacular flameout of Sam Bankman-Fried and his FTX crypto empire, exemplifying how individual coding brilliance and moral detachment can result in monumental ruin. Despite creating a $32 billion company by age 30, Bankman-Fried’s leadership – marked by alleged fraud, conflicts of interest, and a lack of empathy for customer and investor wellbeing – triggered FTX’s overnight bankruptcy and federal investigations. His singular focus on multiplying personal wealth evinced a steep deficit in the human skills required to build an enterprise of enduring value.

These stories are echoed in the downfall of other once-promising ventures. Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes was a gifted storyteller who inspirationally promoted a blood-testing technology with revolutionary potential, yet disregard for rigorous critical analysis of her product ultimately led to the collapse of Theranos and her imprisonment.

WeWork’s meteoric rise and fall is a testament to the perils of hubristic leadership devoid of grounded business practices. Adam Neumann, its charismatic founder, pushed WeWork’s valuation to astronomical heights with a vision of transforming office spaces. However, erratic behavior, questionable financial practices, and detachment from the company’s operational realities led to a dramatic implosion, costing investors billions.

Such stories of flawed innovators ultimately underscore the same lesson. The decisive competitive asset is our uniquely human capacity for integrating disparate insights into cohesive visions and ethical actions. Our power to reason abstractly, shape narratives and cooperate towards uplifting goals, is what birthed all paradigm shifts. While contexts and tools continuously evolve, the core human capabilities that enable virtuous transformations through volatility remain anchors. From village elders to modern CEOs, the abiding art is channeling conceptual thinking, influence and emotional intelligence toward coalition-building and progress.

Call them renaissance souls or polymaths – leaders who integrate technical expertise with cultural empathy, analytical skills with resonant storytelling, and moral clarity with pragmatic coalition-building, wield the full adaptive repertoire for thriving through any upheaval – while inspiring diverse others towards wiser paths.

Develop these talents – within yourself and among the executives across your business – and you cultivate the precious few who can steer organizations towards maximizing human potential, not just weathering volatility, but bending the arc towards collective flourishing. Even our potential AI successors will require such skills to acquire ethical wisdom and cohesive purpose.

While each era monumentally resculpts industry terrain, intrinsically human factors like reasoned judgment, inspirational vision, and generous perspectives remain the sole constant for pioneering positive progress. In unprecedented times and familiar ones alike, these remain the skills to invest in, above all.

Expect the unexpected

The notion that we live in unprecedented times is paradoxically one of the most precedented aspects of our shared history. Borrowing from Dan Ariely’s classic book, Predictably Irrational, I call our world ‘predictably unprecedented.’ Our ancestors weathered the storms of change using their innate abilities to think critically, influence others and empathize deeply. These same skills are indispensable in our current era, where technology, climate change and geopolitical shifts create a complex and ever-changing landscape.

Leaders who can navigate this terrain with wisdom and integrity, drawing on the timeless human qualities of critical analysis, persuasive influence and empathetic understanding, will not only survive but thrive. They will build bridges, inspire collective action, and create lasting value in a world that often feels chaotic and uncertain.

Investing in these human talents is not just a strategy for weathering the storm; it is the key to shaping a future where humanity can flourish.
As we move forward, let us remember that while the challenges we face may be new, the capabilities we need to overcome them are as old as humanity itself.

By honing these skills and nurturing them in ourselves and our leaders, we can navigate even the most “unprecedented” times with confidence and grace.